AS Roma 1-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Venezia meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico.
Venezia's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in AS Roma's favour (1.80 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: AS Roma 0W, Venezia 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–3 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 50% versus Venezia 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 50% | Venezia 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.39 xG and Venezia 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.934 / defence 0.867 | Venezia attack 0.590 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.333. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 AS Roma games / 36 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 53% | Draw 30% | Venezia 17%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Venezia 5.88. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 40% | Venezia 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 53% | Draw 30% | Venezia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG AS Roma 1.39 / Venezia 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.934 / def 0.867 | Venezia attack 0.590 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Venezia xG
38%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Venezia kick off?
AS Roma vs Venezia kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Venezia?
AS Roma 1 - 1 Venezia.
Where is AS Roma vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Venezia part of?
AS Roma vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 53% chance of winning, Venezia a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both AS Roma and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): AS Roma 0W | Draws 0 | Venezia 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Venezia in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Venezia (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 0.93x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.59x) against AS Roma's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
53%
1.89
30%
3.34
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.07
0.68
Venezia xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
4%
23.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.0 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.68 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Roma's recent record stands at 17W 8D 11L from 36 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 23L across 36 games — 0.69 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Venezia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 10W 5D 3L from 18 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 3W 3D 12L across 18 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Roma are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.92 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 61%.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Venezia in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 17W 8D 11L in their last 36 games (1.64 PPG), while Venezia have gone 6W 7D 23L in their last 36 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Venezia away?
AS Roma's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.94 PPG; Venezia away: 0.67 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Venezia in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
AS Roma have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AS Roma
1
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 2, Venezia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Venezia 0-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Venezia?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 39%, Venezia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (AS Roma) and 50% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Venezia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of AS Roma's recent matches and 50% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of AS Roma's recent games and 50% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Venezia tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Venezia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma and Venezia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.39 xG and Venezia 0.68 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.93 / defence 0.87 against Venezia attack 0.59 / defence 1.34, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 53% | Draw 30% | Venezia 17%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 50%, Venezia 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.