Udinese 2-3 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Spezia travel to Dacia Arena to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Dacia Arena, Udinese have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Spezia — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Spezia have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Udinese carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Udinese, 0 for Spezia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Udinese winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Udinese trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Spezia trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 61% versus Spezia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 53% | Spezia 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.89 xG and Spezia 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.184 / defence 1.195 | Spezia attack 0.678 / defence 1.431. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.321. Spezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.431 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Udinese games / 36 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 55% | Draw 25% | Spezia 20%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Spezia 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Udinese (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 80% | Spezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 55% | Draw 25% | Spezia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Udinese 1.89 / Spezia 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.184 / def 1.195 | Spezia attack 0.678 / def 1.431 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Udinese (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Spezia xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Spezia kick off?
Udinese vs Spezia kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Spezia?
Udinese 2 - 3 Spezia.
Where is Udinese vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Spezia part of?
Udinese vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 55% chance of winning, Spezia a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Udinese and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Spezia?
Record (1 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 0 | Spezia 0W.
What form are Udinese and Spezia in?
Udinese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Spezia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (1.18) and Spezia's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.05
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.96
1.07
Spezia xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
3%
32.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Udinese and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Udinese and 1.07 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Spezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese's recent record stands at 10W 14D 12L from 36 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Spezia, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 21L across 36 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.22 PPG, Spezia on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 6W 7D 5L from 18 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spezia's away record stands at 4W 3D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Udinese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.06 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Spezia in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 10W 14D 12L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Spezia have gone 9W 6D 21L in their last 36 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Spezia away?
Udinese's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.39 PPG; Spezia away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Spezia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Udinese's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Udinese
2
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Spezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Spezia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Udinese 2-2 Spezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 67%, Spezia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Udinese) and 67% (Spezia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spezia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Spezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Udinese's games and 56% of Spezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Udinese's matches and 67% of Spezia's.
Do Udinese and Spezia tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Spezia in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Spezia defy the odds to beat Udinese 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Udinese 2-3 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.89 xG and Spezia 1.07 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Spezia outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.18 / defence 1.20 against Spezia attack 0.68 / defence 1.43, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 55% | Draw 25% | Spezia 20%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Spezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 53%, Spezia 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.22 PPG, Spezia 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.