Fiorentina 2-0 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventus at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Juventus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fiorentina and Juventus meet at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Fiorentina's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Fiorentina at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Juventus (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Juventus away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Fiorentina 0W, Juventus 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Juventus winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 54% versus Juventus 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 62% | Juventus 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.34 xG and Juventus 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.036 / defence 0.988 | Juventus attack 1.038 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.360. Data: 37 Fiorentina games / 37 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 35% | Draw 28% | Juventus 37%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Juventus 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 20% | Juventus 80%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 35% | Draw 28% | Juventus 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Fiorentina 1.34 / Juventus 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.036 / def 0.988 | Juventus attack 1.038 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Juventus (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Juventus xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Juventus kick off?
Fiorentina vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Fiorentina 2 - 0 Juventus.
Where is Fiorentina vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Juventus part of?
Fiorentina vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 35% chance of winning, Juventus a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fiorentina and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Juventus?
Record (1 meetings): Fiorentina 0W | Draws 0 | Juventus 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Juventus in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Juventus (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.04) and Juventus's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (1.04x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
35%
2.85
28%
3.63
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.74
1.40
Juventus xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.40 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fiorentina come into this having played 37 games, going 18W 5D 14L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Juventus sit at 1.89 PPG from 37 outings (20W 10D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.89 for Juventus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fiorentina's home form reads 12W 2D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Juventus have taken 1.94 points per game from 18 outings (10W 5D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.54 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Juventus in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 18W 5D 14L in their last 37 games (1.59 PPG), while Juventus have gone 20W 10D 7L in their last 37 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Juventus away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.11 PPG; Juventus away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Juventus in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 3-0 on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
3
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, Juventus have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Juventus 0-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 39%, Juventus 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fiorentina and 56% for Juventus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Fiorentina's games and 72% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fiorentina's matches and 56% of Juventus's.
Do Fiorentina and Juventus tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Juventus in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Juventus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Juventus 2-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.34 xG and Juventus 1.40 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Juventus landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Juventus attack 1.04 / defence 1.16, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 35% | Draw 28% | Juventus 37%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 62%, Juventus 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Juventus's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.59 PPG, Juventus 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.