Juventus 1-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventus at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventus vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fiorentina make the trip to Allianz Stadium to face Juventus in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Juventus (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Stadium, Juventus have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fiorentina have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 3W 0D 3L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Juventus against 1.80 for Fiorentina. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Juventus 73% and Fiorentina 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 54% | Fiorentina 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.09 xG and Fiorentina 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 0.848 / defence 1.016 | Fiorentina attack 0.679 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.367. Data: 11 Juventus games / 11 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 39% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 31%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Fiorentina 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Juventus 60% | Fiorentina 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 39% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Juventus 1.09 / Fiorentina 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 0.848 / def 1.016 | Fiorentina attack 0.679 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Juventus (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Fiorentina xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Fiorentina kick off?
Juventus vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Juventus 1 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Juventus vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Fiorentina part of?
Juventus vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 39% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Juventus and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Fiorentina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventus and Fiorentina in?
Juventus (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juventus's attack rating (0.85) and Fiorentina's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.68x) against Juventus's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
39%
2.59
30%
3.29
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.03
0.94
Fiorentina xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
10%
9.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Juventus and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Juventus and 0.94 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Juventus have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 4W 3D 4L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina's form line: 6W 0D 5L from 11 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Juventus against 1.64 for Fiorentina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Juventus have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventus are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.45 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventus have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 6W 0D 5L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 1.40 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 3-0 on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventus have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
3
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Fiorentina have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Juventus 0-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Fiorentina?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 60%, Fiorentina 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Juventus) and 40% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Juventus's recent matches and 40% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Juventus's recent games and 40% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Fiorentina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Fiorentina 1-0 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.09 xG and Fiorentina 0.94 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Fiorentina attack 0.68 / defence 1.01, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 39% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 31%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 54%, Fiorentina 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Fiorentina's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventus 1.36 PPG, Fiorentina 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventus win broke the near-deadlock. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.