Venezia 3-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Venezia (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's home record at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's away record: 2W 0D 3L from 5 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AS Roma are 0.70 PPG clear of Venezia in recent Serie A fixtures (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Venezia have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, AS Roma in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 54% versus AS Roma 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 46% | AS Roma 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.15 xG and AS Roma 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.768 / defence 1.235 | AS Roma attack 1.009 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.357. Venezia's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Venezia games / 11 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 26% | Draw 24% | AS Roma 50%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | AS Roma 2.00. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 75% | AS Roma 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 26% | Draw 24% | AS Roma 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Venezia 1.15 / AS Roma 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.768 / def 1.235 | AS Roma attack 1.009 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.69
AS Roma xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs AS Roma kick off?
Venezia vs AS Roma kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs AS Roma?
Venezia 3 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Venezia vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs AS Roma part of?
Venezia vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 26% chance of winning, AS Roma a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Venezia and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and AS Roma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and AS Roma in?
Venezia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.77) and AS Roma's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.01x) against Venezia's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
26%
3.87
24%
4.16
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.84
1.69
AS Roma xG
3.87
26%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
5%
20.99
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Venezia and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Venezia and 1.69 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Venezia have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 2W 3D 6L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma's form line: 6W 1D 4L from 11 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Venezia.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Venezia have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Venezia are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.73 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 6W 1D 4L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or AS Roma away?
Venezia's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.00 PPG; AS Roma away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Venezia or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, AS Roma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
AS Roma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Venezia
1
Draws
2
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and AS Roma?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, AS Roma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Venezia 0-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Venezia, 75% for AS Roma — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Venezia and 75% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Venezia's games and 75% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Venezia's matches and 75% of AS Roma's.
Do Venezia and AS Roma tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat AS Roma 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat AS Roma 3-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.15 xG and AS Roma 1.69 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.77 / defence 1.24 against AS Roma attack 1.01 / defence 1.18, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 26% | Draw 24% | AS Roma 50%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 46%, AS Roma 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Venezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. AS Roma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.