Udinese 3-2 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Udinese and Sassuolo meet at Dacia Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Udinese's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's home record at Dacia Arena: 1W 3D 2L from 6 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Sassuolo (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's away record: 2W 1D 2L from 5 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 46% versus Sassuolo 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 36% | Sassuolo 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.26 xG and Sassuolo 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.771 / defence 1.244 | Sassuolo attack 1.023 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.361. Udinese's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Udinese games / 11 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 28% | Draw 24% | Sassuolo 49%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Sassuolo 2.04. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 50% | Sassuolo 100% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 28% | Draw 24% | Sassuolo 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Udinese 1.26 / Sassuolo 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.771 / def 1.244 | Sassuolo attack 1.023 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Sassuolo xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Sassuolo kick off?
Udinese vs Sassuolo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Sassuolo?
Udinese 3 - 2 Sassuolo.
Where is Udinese vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Sassuolo part of?
Udinese vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 28% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Udinese and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Sassuolo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Udinese and Sassuolo in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.77x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (1.02x) against Udinese's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
28%
3.59
24%
4.24
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.99
1.73
Sassuolo xG
3.59
28%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
5%
20.31
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Udinese and 1.73 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese's recent record stands at 2W 5D 4L from 11 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 5L across 11 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Udinese against 1.27 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sassuolo's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.36 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Sassuolo away?
Sassuolo's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.00 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sassuolo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Udinese
4
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Sassuolo?
From 8 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Sassuolo have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Udinese 1-2 Sassuolo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 40% for Udinese, 100% for Sassuolo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Udinese and 100% for Sassuolo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Udinese's games and 100% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Udinese's matches and 100% of Sassuolo's.
Do Udinese and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Udinese defy the odds to beat Sassuolo 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Sassuolo 3-2 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.26 xG and Sassuolo 1.73 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.77 / defence 1.24 against Sassuolo attack 1.02 / defence 1.27, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 28% | Draw 24% | Sassuolo 49%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Udinese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 36%, Sassuolo 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.00 PPG, Sassuolo 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.