Hellas Verona 2-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Juventus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hellas Verona and Juventus meet at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hellas Verona's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hellas Verona have posted 3W 0D 2L at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Hellas Verona are significantly better at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi than their overall form suggests.
Juventus have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hellas Verona register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Juventus in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Hellas Verona half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 80%.
Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 80% and Juventus 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hellas Verona 80% | Juventus 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.90 xG and Juventus 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.389 / defence 1.202 | Juventus attack 0.934 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.460. Hellas Verona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — their λ of 1.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 Hellas Verona games / 10 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 44% | Draw 22% | Juventus 34%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | Juventus 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 80% | Juventus 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 44% | Draw 22% | Juventus 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Hellas Verona 1.90 / Juventus 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.389 / def 1.202 | Juventus attack 0.934 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Juventus xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Juventus kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Juventus kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Juventus?
Hellas Verona 2 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Juventus part of?
Hellas Verona vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 44% chance of winning, Juventus a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Hellas Verona and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Juventus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hellas Verona and Juventus in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Juventus (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (1.39) and Juventus's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (0.93x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
44%
2.26
22%
4.55
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.54
1.64
Juventus xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
19%
5.15
15%
6.66
Win to Nil
9%
11.64
5%
19.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.64 for Juventus, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 3W 3D 4L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus's form line: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Hellas Verona against 1.50 for Juventus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Hellas Verona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Juventus have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Hellas Verona are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.40 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Juventus in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Juventus in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Juventus have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Juventus away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.80 PPG; Juventus away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 0-3 on 26 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
6
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 1, Juventus have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Juventus 1-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Hellas Verona, 80% for Juventus — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Hellas Verona and 60% for Juventus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hellas Verona's games and 80% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Hellas Verona's matches and 60% of Juventus's.
Do Hellas Verona and Juventus tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Juventus in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hellas Verona edge out Juventus 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Juventus 2-1 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.90 xG and Juventus 1.64 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.39 / defence 1.20 against Juventus attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 44% | Draw 22% | Juventus 34%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 80%, Juventus 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Juventus's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 1.20 PPG, Juventus 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.