Fiorentina 3-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Spezia travel to Stadio Artemio Franchi to take on Fiorentina. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Spezia have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Spezia have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Fiorentina have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Fiorentina trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Spezia trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fiorentina 60% and Spezia 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fiorentina 70% | Spezia 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 2.27 xG and Spezia 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.092 / defence 1.146 | Spezia attack 0.729 / defence 1.599. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.419. Spezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.599 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Fiorentina games / 10 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 62% | Draw 19% | Spezia 19%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | Spezia 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 75% | Spezia 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 62% | Draw 19% | Spezia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 62% | xG Fiorentina 2.27 / Spezia 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.092 / def 1.146 | Spezia attack 0.729 / def 1.599 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Spezia xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Spezia kick off?
Fiorentina vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Spezia?
Fiorentina 3 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Fiorentina vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Spezia part of?
Fiorentina vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 62% chance of winning, Spezia a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fiorentina and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Spezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fiorentina and Spezia in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Spezia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (1.60x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.27. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
62%
1.62
19%
5.15
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.45
1.19
Spezia xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
10%
9.67
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
2%
51.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.19 for Spezia, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Spezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 5W 0D 5L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spezia's form line: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fiorentina are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spezia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.20 scored and 2.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Spezia in 80%.
Last 10 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Spezia in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Spezia have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Spezia away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.50 PPG; Spezia away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Spezia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Fiorentina won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
1
Draws
0
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Spezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, Spezia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Fiorentina 1-1 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Spezia?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fiorentina at 75%, Spezia at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Fiorentina and 100% for Spezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Spezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Fiorentina's games and 75% of Spezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Fiorentina's matches and 100% of Spezia's.
Do Fiorentina and Spezia tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Spezia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Spezia 3-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 2.27 xG and Spezia 1.19 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Spezia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.09 / defence 1.15 against Spezia attack 0.73 / defence 1.60, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 62% | Draw 19% | Spezia 19%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 70%, Spezia 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Spezia's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.