Lazio 0-2 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs Juventus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Juventus travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on Lazio. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lazio — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio at Stadio Olimpico this season: 5W 1D 0L from 6 home games — 2.67 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Lazio are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventus have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Juventus have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lazio at 1.50 PPG versus Juventus's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lazio register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Juventus in 83% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Lazio in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Juventus in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lazio 67% and Juventus 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 75% | Juventus 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.88 xG and Juventus 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.351 / defence 0.996 | Juventus attack 0.923 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.363. Lazio carry an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 12 Lazio games / 12 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 52% | Draw 23% | Juventus 25%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Juventus 4.00. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 67% | Juventus 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 52% | Draw 23% | Juventus 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Lazio 1.88 / Juventus 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.351 / def 0.996 | Juventus attack 0.923 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Lazio (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Juventus xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Juventus kick off?
Lazio vs Juventus kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Juventus?
Lazio 0 - 2 Juventus.
Where is Lazio vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Juventus part of?
Lazio vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 52% chance of winning, Juventus a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lazio and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Juventus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lazio and Juventus in?
Lazio (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Juventus (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lazio's attack at 1.35x the league average against Juventus's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.44
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Lazio xG
Total xG
3.13
1.25
Juventus xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
4%
25.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Lazio and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Lazio and 1.25 for Juventus, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lazio come into this having played 12 games, going 6W 3D 3L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juventus sit at 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lazio on 1.75 PPG, Juventus on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lazio's home form reads 5W 1D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Lazio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Juventus have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lazio are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.33 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Juventus in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Juventus in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while Juventus have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Juventus away?
Lazio's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 2.67 PPG; Juventus away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lazio and Juventus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Juventus won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lazio's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lazio
3
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 3, Juventus have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Juventus 2-2 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lazio at 67%, Juventus at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Lazio and 67% for Juventus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lazio's games and 83% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Lazio's matches and 67% of Juventus's.
Do Lazio and Juventus tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Juventus in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lazio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Lazio 0-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.88 xG and Juventus 1.25 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lazio fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.35 / defence 1.00 against Juventus attack 0.92 / defence 1.07, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 52% | Draw 23% | Juventus 25%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Juventus win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 75%, Juventus 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Juventus's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.75 PPG, Juventus 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventus win broke the near-deadlock. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.