Spezia 1-0 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 35%, yet in-form Torino provide a compelling counter-argument — this Spezia vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spezia and Torino meet at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Spezia have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Picco, Spezia have gone 1W 1D 3L this season (5 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Torino's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Torino have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Torino are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Torino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 73% versus Torino 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 82% | Torino 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.02 xG and Torino 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.836 / defence 1.200 | Torino attack 0.615 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.379. Data: 11 Spezia games / 11 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 35% | Draw 30% | Torino 35%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Torino 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Spezia 80% | Torino 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 35% | Draw 30% | Torino 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Spezia 1.02 / Torino 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.836 / def 1.200 | Torino attack 0.615 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Torino xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Torino kick off?
Spezia vs Torino kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Torino?
Spezia 1 - 0 Torino.
Where is Spezia vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Torino part of?
Spezia vs Torino is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 35% chance of winning, Torino a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Spezia and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Torino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spezia and Torino in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Torino (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Spezia's attack at 0.84x the league average against Torino's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.61x) against Spezia's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
35%
2.87
30%
3.28
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.04
1.02
Torino xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Spezia and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Spezia and 1.02 for Torino, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spezia's recent record stands at 2W 2D 7L from 11 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 5L across 11 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Torino by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spezia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Torino's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Torino's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.36 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.36 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spezia have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Torino in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Torino have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Torino away?
Spezia's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.80 PPG; Torino away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Torino won 0-4 on 27 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Spezia
0
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Torino?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 2, Torino have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when Spezia 0-4 Torino.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Torino see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 80%, Torino 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Spezia) and 20% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Torino in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Torino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Spezia's games and 40% of Torino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Spezia's recent games and 20% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Spezia edge out Torino 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Torino 1-0 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.02 xG and Torino 1.02 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Torino landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Torino attack 0.61 / defence 0.96, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 35% | Draw 30% | Torino 35%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 82%, Torino 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Torino's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Torino arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.73. Form was overturned, with Spezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.