Venezia 3-4 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 16 as Venezia welcome Hellas Verona to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 home games — 1.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 0W 4D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Venezia) versus 1.60 (Hellas Verona). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Venezia register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Hellas Verona in 86% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Venezia trading profile (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Hellas Verona trading profile (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Venezia 47% and Hellas Verona 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 47% | Hellas Verona 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.51 xG and Hellas Verona 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.836 / defence 1.269 | Hellas Verona attack 0.835 / defence 1.454. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.421. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.454 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Venezia games / 15 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 38% | Draw 24% | Hellas Verona 38%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Hellas Verona 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 67% | Hellas Verona 86% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 38% | Draw 24% | Hellas Verona 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Venezia 1.51 / Hellas Verona 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.836 / def 1.269 | Hellas Verona attack 0.835 / def 1.454 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Hellas Verona xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Venezia vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Hellas Verona?
Venezia 3 - 4 Hellas Verona.
Where is Venezia vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Hellas Verona part of?
Venezia vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 38% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Venezia and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Hellas Verona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Hellas Verona in?
Venezia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.84) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
38%
2.63
24%
4.13
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.02
1.51
Hellas Verona xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
8%
11.86
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Venezia and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Venezia and 1.51 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, Venezia have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 3D 8L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona's form line: 5W 5D 5L from 15 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 1.00 PPG, Hellas Verona on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Venezia have posted 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 0W 4D 2L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hellas Verona's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.87 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona in 80%.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Hellas Verona away?
Venezia's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.17 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Venezia's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Venezia
1
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Hellas Verona?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 0, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2025, when Venezia 1-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Venezia at 67%, Hellas Verona at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Venezia) and 67% (Hellas Verona). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Venezia's games and 100% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Venezia's matches and 67% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Venezia and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Venezia 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Venezia 3-4 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.51 xG and Hellas Verona 1.51 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hellas Verona outscored their 1.51 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.84 / defence 1.27 against Hellas Verona attack 0.83 / defence 1.45, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 38% | Draw 24% | Hellas Verona 38%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Hellas Verona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 47%, Hellas Verona 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.00 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.