Bologna 1-0 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 15 as Bologna welcome AS Roma to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 1 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bologna — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 4W 1D 2L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 1.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's away record: 3W 0D 4L from 7 road trips in Serie A this season (1.29 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Bologna) versus 1.60 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 50% versus AS Roma 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 57% | AS Roma 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.51 xG and AS Roma 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.955 / defence 1.185 | AS Roma attack 1.039 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.357. AS Roma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Bologna games / 14 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 35% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 42%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | AS Roma 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 43% | AS Roma 57%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 35% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Bologna 1.51 / AS Roma 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.955 / def 1.185 | AS Roma attack 1.039 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.67
AS Roma xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs AS Roma kick off?
Bologna vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs AS Roma?
Bologna 1 - 0 AS Roma.
Where is Bologna vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs AS Roma part of?
Bologna vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 35% chance of winning, AS Roma a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Bologna and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AS Roma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bologna and AS Roma in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bologna's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
35%
2.86
23%
4.27
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Bologna xG
Total xG
3.18
1.67
AS Roma xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
7%
15.21
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Bologna and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Bologna and 1.67 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bologna's recent record stands at 6W 3D 5L from 14 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 8W 1D 5L across 14 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.50 PPG, AS Roma on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 3W 0D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.71 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; AS Roma in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 games (1.50 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 8W 1D 5L in their last 14 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or AS Roma away?
Bologna's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.86 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Bologna or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, AS Roma in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and AS Roma runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Bologna's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
3
Draws
3
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, AS Roma have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bologna 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and AS Roma?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 43%, AS Roma 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Bologna and 71% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Bologna's recent matches and 57% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Bologna's matches and 71% of AS Roma's.
Do Bologna and AS Roma tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat AS Roma 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat AS Roma 1-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.51 xG and AS Roma 1.67 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against AS Roma attack 1.04 / defence 1.27, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 35% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 42%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 57%, AS Roma 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
AS Roma's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.50 PPG, AS Roma 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.