Salernitana 0-2 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Salernitana and Juventus meet at Stadio Arechi in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Salernitana's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 5L across 7 games at Stadio Arechi this term (0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Juventus (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus's away record: 3W 2D 2L from 7 road trips in Serie A this season (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Juventus are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Salernitana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 43% versus Juventus 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 57% | Juventus 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 0.77 xG and Juventus 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.646 / defence 1.348 | Juventus attack 0.982 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.366. Salernitana's attack strength of 0.646 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Salernitana games / 14 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 15% | Draw 22% | Juventus 62%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 6.67 | Draw 4.55 | Juventus 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Juventus (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Salernitana 29% | Juventus 71%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 15% | Draw 22% | Juventus 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 45% | xG Salernitana 0.77 / Juventus 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.646 / def 1.348 | Juventus attack 0.982 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Juventus (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Juventus xG
45%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Juventus kick off?
Salernitana vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Juventus?
Salernitana 0 - 2 Juventus.
Where is Salernitana vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Juventus part of?
Salernitana vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 15% chance of winning, Juventus a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Salernitana and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Juventus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salernitana and Juventus in?
Salernitana (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Juventus (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 0.65x the league average against Juventus's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (0.98x) against Salernitana's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
15%
6.51
22%
4.46
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.58
1.81
Juventus xG
6.51
15%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
46%
2.15
Win to Nil
3%
39.74
29%
3.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 13.8 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.81 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Juventus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salernitana come into this having played 14 games, going 2W 2D 10L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juventus sit at 1.50 PPG from 14 outings (6W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Salernitana's home form reads 1W 1D 5L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventus have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salernitana are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.29 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Juventus in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 2W 2D 10L in their last 14 games (0.57 PPG), while Juventus have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.57 PPG; Juventus away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 0-3 on 7 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salernitana have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Salernitana
2
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Juventus?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 0, Juventus have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Juventus 1-1 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salernitana see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 29%, Juventus 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Salernitana) and 57% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Salernitana's recent matches and 71% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Salernitana's recent games and 57% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Juventus tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Juventus in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Salernitana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Salernitana 0-2 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 0.77 xG and Juventus 1.81 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.65 / defence 1.35 against Juventus attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 15% | Draw 22% | Juventus 62%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 57%, Juventus 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juventus's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.