Sassuolo 2-2 Napoli – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Napoli at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Napoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sassuolo and Napoli meet at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Sassuolo (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 3L across 7 games at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this term (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Napoli's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 1L across 7 road games this term (2.29 PPG). They are averaging 2.14 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Napoli are 0.90 PPG clear of Sassuolo in recent Serie A fixtures (2.30 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Sassuolo — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Napoli — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 79% versus Napoli 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sassuolo 79% | Napoli 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.00 xG and Napoli 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.893 / defence 1.231 | Napoli attack 1.108 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.331. Data: 14 Sassuolo games / 14 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 21% | Draw 23% | Napoli 56%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Napoli 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sassuolo 57% | Napoli 43%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 21% | Draw 23% | Napoli 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Sassuolo 1.00 / Napoli 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.893 / def 1.231 | Napoli attack 1.108 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Napoli (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Napoli xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Napoli kick off?
Sassuolo vs Napoli kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Napoli?
Sassuolo 2 - 2 Napoli.
Where is Sassuolo vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Napoli part of?
Sassuolo vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 21% chance of winning, Napoli a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sassuolo and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Napoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sassuolo and Napoli in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Napoli (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sassuolo's attack at 0.89x the league average against Napoli's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Napoli's attack (1.11x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
21%
4.85
23%
4.36
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.82
1.82
Napoli xG
4.85
21%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
16%
6.15
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
3%
29.80
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.82 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Napoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Sassuolo have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 5W 3D 6L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Napoli's form line: 11W 2D 1L from 14 games, 2.50 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 1.21 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sassuolo.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sassuolo have posted 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
On the road, Napoli have gone 5W 1D 1L from 7 away games — 2.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sassuolo are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 2.14 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Defensively: Napoli in 64% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Napoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Napoli in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Napoli have gone 11W 2D 1L in their last 14 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.14 PPG; Napoli away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Napoli in 64%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Napoli have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 6-1 on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Napoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Sassuolo
1
Draws
7
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Napoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 0, Napoli have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Napoli 1-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sassuolo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 57%, Napoli 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Sassuolo and 71% for Napoli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Napoli in 57%; Sassuolo have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 43% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Sassuolo's matches and 71% of Napoli's.
Do Sassuolo and Napoli tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Napoli in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo and Napoli share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 15, as Sassuolo and Napoli drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.00 xG and Napoli 1.82 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sassuolo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.89 / defence 1.23 against Napoli attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 21% | Draw 23% | Napoli 56%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 79%, Napoli 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Napoli's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Napoli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.