Genoa 0-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 0W 3D 2L from 5 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's away record: 2W 0D 4L from 6 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Genoa, 1.30 for AS Roma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Genoa have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, AS Roma in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Genoa 75% and AS Roma 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Genoa 75% | AS Roma 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.57 xG and AS Roma 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.902 / defence 1.269 | AS Roma attack 1.007 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.415. AS Roma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Genoa games / 12 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 44%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | AS Roma 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 80% | AS Roma 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Genoa 1.57 / AS Roma 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.902 / def 1.269 | AS Roma attack 1.007 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.81
AS Roma xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs AS Roma kick off?
Genoa vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs AS Roma?
Genoa 0 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Genoa vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs AS Roma part of?
Genoa vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 34% chance of winning, AS Roma a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Genoa and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AS Roma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and AS Roma in?
Genoa (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. AS Roma (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Genoa's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.01x) against Genoa's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
34%
2.97
23%
4.43
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Genoa xG
Total xG
3.37
1.81
AS Roma xG
2.97
34%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
6%
18.11
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Genoa and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Genoa and 1.81 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genoa come into this having played 12 games, going 1W 6D 5L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (6W 1D 5L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Genoa's home form reads 0W 3D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genoa have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 1W 6D 5L in their last 12 games (0.75 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 6W 1D 5L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or AS Roma away?
Genoa's home record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 0.60 PPG; AS Roma away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Genoa or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, AS Roma in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won 4-1 on 28 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Genoa
2
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, AS Roma have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Genoa 2-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Genoa, 80% for AS Roma — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Genoa and 80% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Genoa's games and 80% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Genoa's matches and 80% of AS Roma's.
Do Genoa and AS Roma tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Genoa 0-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.57 xG and AS Roma 1.81 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Genoa fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.90 / defence 1.27 against AS Roma attack 1.01 / defence 1.34, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 34% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 44%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 75%, AS Roma 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Roma's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.