Bologna 2-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara plays host to Bologna versus Cagliari in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Monday 1 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bologna have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 3W 1D 1L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Cagliari's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in Serie A this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Bologna's favour (1.20 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bologna 60% and Cagliari 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bologna 70% | Cagliari 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 2.05 xG and Cagliari 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.121 / defence 1.247 | Cagliari attack 0.696 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.394. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Bologna games / 10 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 57% | Draw 21% | Cagliari 22%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Cagliari 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 60% | Cagliari 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 57% | Draw 21% | Cagliari 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Bologna 2.05 / Cagliari 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.121 / def 1.247 | Cagliari attack 0.696 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Bologna (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Cagliari xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Cagliari kick off?
Bologna vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Cagliari?
Bologna 2 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Bologna vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Cagliari part of?
Bologna vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 57% chance of winning, Cagliari a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bologna and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Cagliari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bologna and Cagliari in?
Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Cagliari (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.12x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.70x) against Bologna's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.72
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Bologna xG
Total xG
3.26
1.21
Cagliari xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
13%
7.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
3%
35.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Bologna and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Bologna and 1.21 for Cagliari, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Cagliari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bologna's recent record stands at 3W 3D 4L from 10 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 6L across 10 games — 0.60 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Bologna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cagliari's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bologna have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Cagliari in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Cagliari away?
Bologna's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.75 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Bologna or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cagliari in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bologna
1
Draws
2
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 5, Cagliari have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Bologna 0-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Cagliari?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 50%, Cagliari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Bologna and 75% for Cagliari. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cagliari in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bologna's recent matches and 50% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Bologna's matches and 75% of Cagliari's.
Do Bologna and Cagliari tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Cagliari 2-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 2.05 xG and Cagliari 1.21 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cagliari landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.12 / defence 1.25 against Cagliari attack 0.70 / defence 1.44, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 57% | Draw 21% | Cagliari 22%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 70%, Cagliari 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cagliari's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.