AS Roma 1-2 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AS Roma at 44%, yet in-form AC Milan provide a compelling counter-argument — this AS Roma vs AC Milan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus AC Milan in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 31 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 0L across 5 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
AC Milan's overall Serie A record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AC Milan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AC Milan have posted 4W 1D 0L from 5 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, AC Milan are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
AC Milan — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 50% versus AC Milan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 60% | AC Milan 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.45 xG and AC Milan 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.001 / defence 0.719 | AC Milan attack 1.153 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.385. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 10 AS Roma games / 10 AC Milan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 44% | Draw 26% | AC Milan 30%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | AC Milan 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AC Milan (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 40% | AC Milan 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 44% | Draw 26% | AC Milan 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG AS Roma 1.45 / AC Milan 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.001 / def 0.719 | AC Milan attack 1.153 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.15
AC Milan xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs AC Milan kick off?
AS Roma vs AC Milan kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs AC Milan?
AS Roma 1 - 2 AC Milan.
Where is AS Roma vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs AC Milan part of?
AS Roma vs AC Milan is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 44% chance of winning, AC Milan a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AS Roma and AC Milan will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and AC Milan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Roma and AC Milan in?
AS Roma (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. AC Milan (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.00x the league average against AC Milan's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AC Milan's attack (1.15x) against AS Roma's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.84
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.59
1.15
AC Milan xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
7%
14.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are AS Roma and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.15 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs AC Milan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Roma come into this having played 10 games, going 6W 1D 3L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AC Milan sit at 2.80 PPG from 10 outings (9W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for AC Milan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Milan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of AS Roma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AS Roma's home form reads 4W 1D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AC Milan have taken 2.60 points per game from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Roma are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 2.30 scored and 0.90 conceded. AS Roma's scoring rate against AC Milan's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: AC Milan in 60%.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; AC Milan in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
AC Milan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and AC Milan in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 games (1.90 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 9W 1D 0L in their last 10 (2.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or AC Milan away?
AS Roma's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.60 PPG; AC Milan away: 2.60 PPG.
Have AS Roma or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, AC Milan in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AC Milan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AS Roma
4
Draws
5
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and AC Milan?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 1, AC Milan have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and AC Milan last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when AS Roma 1-1 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 40%, AC Milan 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (AS Roma) and 60% (AC Milan).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play AC Milan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of AS Roma's games and 80% of AC Milan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Roma vs AC Milan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of AS Roma's recent games and 60% of AC Milan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and AC Milan tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, AC Milan in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AC Milan defy the odds to beat AS Roma 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan beat AS Roma 1-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.45 xG and AC Milan 1.15 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AC Milan outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.00 / defence 0.72 against AC Milan attack 1.15 / defence 1.13, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 44% | Draw 26% | AC Milan 30%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual AC Milan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 60%, AC Milan 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
AC Milan's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 2.80 PPG against 1.90. Form held, and they took the win. AS Roma (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.