Atalanta 0-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Empoli make the trip to Gewiss Stadium to face Atalanta in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Atalanta (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atalanta have posted 1W 5D 4L at Gewiss Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Empoli have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Atalanta's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atalanta lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 4–1 with Atalanta winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Atalanta — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Empoli — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Atalanta 65% and Empoli 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 62% | Empoli 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.77 xG and Empoli 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.128 / defence 1.393 | Empoli attack 0.717 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.360. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.404 — this is suppressing Atalanta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Atalanta games / 37 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 46% | Draw 25% | Empoli 29%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Empoli 3.45. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 70% | Empoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 46% | Draw 25% | Empoli 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Atalanta 1.77 / Empoli 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.128 / def 1.393 | Empoli attack 0.717 / def 1.404 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Empoli xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Empoli kick off?
Atalanta vs Empoli kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Empoli?
Atalanta 0 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Atalanta vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Empoli part of?
Atalanta vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 46% chance of winning, Empoli a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Atalanta and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Atalanta 1W | Draws 0 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Empoli in?
Atalanta (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Empoli (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atalanta's attack at 1.13x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.72x) against Atalanta's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.02
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.13
1.36
Empoli xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
5%
20.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.36 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atalanta come into this having played 37 games, going 16W 11D 10L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.03 PPG from 37 outings (9W 11D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Atalanta's home form reads 4W 8D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.59 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.17 points per game from 18 outings (5W 6D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atalanta are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.32 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Empoli in 68%.
Last 37 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Empoli in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 16W 11D 10L in their last 37 games (1.59 PPG), while Empoli have gone 9W 11D 17L in their last 37 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Empoli away?
Empoli's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.11 PPG; Empoli away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Atalanta have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 0-5 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Atalanta
0
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 7, Empoli have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Empoli 0-5 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Empoli?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 72%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Atalanta) and 39% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Atalanta's games and 50% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Atalanta's recent games and 39% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Empoli tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Empoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat Atalanta 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Atalanta 0-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.77 xG and Empoli 1.36 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atalanta fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.13 / defence 1.39 against Empoli attack 0.72 / defence 1.40, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 46% | Draw 25% | Empoli 29%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Empoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 62%, Empoli 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Empoli's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.