Bologna 3-0 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bologna and Sassuolo meet at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sassuolo have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bologna lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 1–3 with Sassuolo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Sassuolo — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bologna 54% and Sassuolo 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 52% | Sassuolo 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.56 xG and Sassuolo 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.960 / defence 0.932 | Sassuolo attack 0.793 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.127. Data: 52 Bologna games / 52 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 54% | Draw 27% | Sassuolo 19%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Sassuolo 5.26. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 80% | Sassuolo 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 54% | Draw 27% | Sassuolo 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Bologna 1.56 / Sassuolo 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.960 / def 0.932 | Sassuolo attack 0.793 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Bologna (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sassuolo xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Sassuolo kick off?
Bologna vs Sassuolo kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Bologna 3 - 0 Sassuolo.
Where is Bologna vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Sassuolo part of?
Bologna vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 54% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bologna and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Sassuolo?
Record (2 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 0 | Sassuolo 1W.
What form are Bologna and Sassuolo in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bologna's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (0.79x) against Bologna's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.66
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.40
0.83
Sassuolo xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
4%
25.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Bologna and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Bologna and 0.83 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 16W 14D 22L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo's form line: 17W 15D 20L from 52 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Bologna against 1.27 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.54 PPG from 26 outings (11W 7D 8L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 8W 7D 11L from 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.52 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 69%.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 16W 14D 22L in their last 52 games (1.19 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 17W 15D 20L in their last 52 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Sassuolo away?
Bologna's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.54 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 0-3 on 22 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Bologna
3
Draws
1
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Sassuolo?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Sassuolo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Sassuolo?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 50%, Sassuolo 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bologna) and 77% (Sassuolo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bologna's games and 69% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bologna vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Bologna's matches and 77% of Sassuolo's.
Do Bologna and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bologna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sassuolo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Sassuolo 3-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.56 xG and Sassuolo 0.83 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sassuolo landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Sassuolo attack 0.79 / defence 1.19, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 54% | Draw 27% | Sassuolo 19%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, Sassuolo 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Sassuolo's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.19 PPG, Sassuolo 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.