Napoli 3-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Udinese make the trip to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona to face Napoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Napoli (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Udinese have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Udinese have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Napoli. A 1.30 PPG lead over Udinese (3.00 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Napoli, 0 for Udinese and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 2–1 with Napoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Napoli — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Udinese — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 52% versus Udinese 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 56% | Udinese 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.63 xG and Udinese 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.402 / defence 0.811 | Udinese attack 1.031 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.111. Napoli carry an above-average attack strength of 1.402 — their λ of 1.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Napoli games / 52 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 53% | Draw 26% | Udinese 21%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Udinese 4.76. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Napoli 50% | Udinese 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 53% | Draw 26% | Udinese 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Napoli 1.63 / Udinese 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.402 / def 0.811 | Udinese attack 1.031 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Napoli (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Udinese xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Udinese kick off?
Napoli vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Udinese?
Napoli 3 - 2 Udinese.
Where is Napoli vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Udinese part of?
Napoli vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 53% chance of winning, Udinese a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Napoli and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Udinese?
Record (2 meetings): Napoli 2W | Draws 0 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Napoli and Udinese in?
Napoli (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Udinese (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Napoli's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (1.03x) against Napoli's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.78
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.56
0.93
Udinese xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
4%
24.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Napoli and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Napoli and 0.93 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Napoli come into this having played 52 games, going 36W 9D 7L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.37 PPG from 52 outings (17W 20D 15L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Napoli's home form reads 17W 4D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.31 points per game from 26 outings (8W 10D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Napoli are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.60 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese in 62%.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Udinese in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 36W 9D 7L in their last 52 games (2.25 PPG), while Udinese have gone 17W 20D 15L in their last 52 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Udinese away?
Napoli's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.12 PPG; Udinese away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Napoli or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Udinese in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 0-4 on 20 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Napoli
3
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 6, Udinese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Napoli 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Udinese?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 46%, Udinese 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Napoli) and 58% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Udinese in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Napoli's recent matches and 58% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Napoli's recent games and 58% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Udinese tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Udinese in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Udinese 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Udinese 3-2 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.63 xG and Udinese 0.93 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Napoli beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Udinese outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.40 / defence 0.81 against Udinese attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 53% | Draw 26% | Udinese 21%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 56%, Udinese 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Udinese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.