Hellas Verona 1-2 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Spezia travel to Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi to take on Hellas Verona. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hellas Verona — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hellas Verona at 0.30 PPG versus Spezia's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hellas Verona have won 2, Spezia 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2022, ended 2–1 with Hellas Verona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Spezia in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 73% and Spezia 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 62% | Spezia 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.41 xG and Spezia 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.876 / defence 1.373 | Spezia attack 0.632 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.131. Data: 52 Hellas Verona games / 52 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 46% | Draw 29% | Spezia 25%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Spezia 4.00. Hellas Verona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hellas Verona 70% | Spezia 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 46% | Draw 29% | Spezia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Hellas Verona 1.41 / Spezia 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.876 / def 1.373 | Spezia attack 0.632 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Spezia xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Spezia kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Spezia?
Hellas Verona 1 - 2 Spezia.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Spezia part of?
Hellas Verona vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 46% chance of winning, Spezia a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hellas Verona and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Spezia?
Record (2 meetings): Hellas Verona 2W | Draws 0 | Spezia 0W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Spezia in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Spezia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.47
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.39
0.98
Spezia xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
6%
16.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 0.98 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona come into this having played 52 games, going 15W 13D 24L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 0.88 PPG from 52 outings (12W 10D 30L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hellas Verona on 1.12 PPG, Spezia on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hellas Verona's home form reads 10W 3D 13L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 0.69 points per game from 26 outings (5W 3D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hellas Verona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.02 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Spezia in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 15W 13D 24L in their last 52 games (1.12 PPG), while Spezia have gone 12W 10D 30L in their last 52 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Spezia away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.27 PPG; Spezia away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2021, when Hellas Verona won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Spezia?
From 5 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, Spezia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2023, when Spezia 1-3 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Spezia?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 73%, Spezia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Hellas Verona and 62% for Spezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spezia in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Spezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Hellas Verona's games and 46% of Spezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Hellas Verona's matches and 62% of Spezia's.
Do Hellas Verona and Spezia tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Spezia in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Spezia defy the odds to beat Hellas Verona 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Hellas Verona 1-2 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.41 xG and Spezia 0.98 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Spezia outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.88 / defence 1.37 against Spezia attack 0.63 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 46% | Draw 29% | Spezia 25%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Spezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 62%, Spezia 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 1.12 PPG, Spezia 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.