AC Milan 2-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AC Milan at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AC Milan vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza to take on AC Milan. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AC Milan — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AC Milan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AC Milan have posted 9W 0D 1L at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — AC Milan are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AC Milan are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AC Milan, 1 for Fiorentina and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 1–0 with AC Milan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AC Milan trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Fiorentina trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Milan 56% versus Fiorentina 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Milan 52% | Fiorentina 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Milan 1.65 xG and Fiorentina 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Milan attack 1.374 / defence 0.941 | Fiorentina attack 0.914 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.128. AC Milan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.374 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 AC Milan games / 52 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Milan 52% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 21%. Fair-value odds: AC Milan 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Fiorentina 4.76. AC Milan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AC Milan as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Milan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AC Milan 50% | Fiorentina 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Milan vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Milan 52% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG AC Milan 1.65 / Fiorentina 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: AC Milan attack 1.374 / def 0.941 | Fiorentina attack 0.914 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
AC Milan xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Fiorentina xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Milan vs Fiorentina kick off?
AC Milan vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
AC Milan 2 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is AC Milan vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is AC Milan vs Fiorentina part of?
AC Milan vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives AC Milan a 52% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both AC Milan and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will AC Milan vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Fiorentina?
Record (2 meetings): AC Milan 1W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are AC Milan and Fiorentina in?
AC Milan (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AC Milan's attack at 1.37x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus AC Milan's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.75
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
AC Milan xG
Total xG
2.62
0.97
Fiorentina xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
4%
24.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are AC Milan and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for AC Milan and 0.97 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Milan vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, AC Milan have picked up 2.23 PPG on a 35W 11D 6L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for AC Milan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina's form line: 24W 9D 19L from 52 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AC Milan are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fiorentina.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AC Milan have posted 2.23 PPG from 26 outings (18W 4D 4L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 8W 5D 13L from 26 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fiorentina's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AC Milan are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.46 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Milan
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Milan and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
AC Milan have gone 35W 11D 6L in their last 52 games (2.23 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 24W 9D 19L in their last 52 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Milan at home or Fiorentina away?
AC Milan's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Milan at home: 2.23 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.12 PPG.
Have AC Milan or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AC Milan and Fiorentina runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AC Milan's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AC Milan
2
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Milan have won 5, Fiorentina have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Milan and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between AC Milan and Fiorentina?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Milan 46%, Fiorentina 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (AC Milan) and 50% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fiorentina in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Milan home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Milan play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of AC Milan's recent matches and 62% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Milan vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of AC Milan's recent games and 50% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Milan and Fiorentina tend to score early?
AC Milan have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AC Milan edge out Fiorentina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan beat Fiorentina 2-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.65 xG and Fiorentina 0.97 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.37 / defence 0.94 against Fiorentina attack 0.91 / defence 0.86, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Milan 52% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 21%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 52%, Fiorentina 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Milan's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.56. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.