AS Roma 1-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Roma host Bologna at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 4 January 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Roma — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bologna have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AS Roma at 1.70 PPG versus Bologna's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for AS Roma, 1 for Bologna and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 49% versus Bologna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 47% | Bologna 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.56 xG and Bologna 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.840 / defence 0.848 | Bologna attack 1.050 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.150. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 AS Roma games / 53 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 49% | Draw 28% | Bologna 24%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 4.17. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 40% | Bologna 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Jan 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 49% | Draw 28% | Bologna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG AS Roma 1.56 / Bologna 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.840 / def 0.848 | Bologna attack 1.050 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Bologna xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Bologna kick off?
AS Roma vs Bologna kicked off at 15:30 on Wednesday 4 January 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Bologna?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Bologna.
Where is AS Roma vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Bologna part of?
AS Roma vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 49% chance of winning, Bologna a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AS Roma and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Bologna?
Record (2 meetings): AS Roma 0W | Draws 1 | Bologna 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Bologna in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Bologna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (0.84) and Bologna's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.59
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.58
1.02
Bologna xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
5%
20.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.02 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 53 games, going 26W 12D 15L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.23 PPG from 53 outings (17W 14D 22L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 13W 7D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (5W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.21 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Bologna in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 26W 12D 15L in their last 53 games (1.70 PPG), while Bologna have gone 17W 14D 22L in their last 53 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Bologna away?
AS Roma's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.77 PPG; Bologna away: 0.85 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bologna in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
AS Roma's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
AS Roma
3
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 3, Bologna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bologna 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 38%, Bologna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (AS Roma) and 62% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; AS Roma have failed to score in 27% of games; Bologna in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AS Roma's recent matches and 58% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of AS Roma's recent games and 62% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Bologna tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bologna in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Bologna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Bologna 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.56 xG and Bologna 1.02 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bologna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.84 / defence 0.85 against Bologna attack 1.05 / defence 1.32, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 49% | Draw 28% | Bologna 24%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 47%, Bologna 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bologna's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.