Inter 6-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inter at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inter vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Inter host Bologna at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Inter — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Inter are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Inter 1.80 PPG, Bologna 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Inter have won 1, Bologna 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Inter in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Bologna in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 59% versus Bologna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 65% | Bologna 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 2.01 xG and Bologna 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.281 / defence 0.752 | Bologna attack 1.070 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.142. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Inter's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Inter games / 51 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 62% | Draw 23% | Bologna 15%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Bologna 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Inter (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Inter 40% | Bologna 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 62% | Draw 23% | Bologna 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Inter 2.01 / Bologna 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.281 / def 0.752 | Bologna attack 1.070 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Inter (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Inter xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Bologna xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Bologna kick off?
Inter vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Bologna?
Inter 6 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Inter vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Bologna part of?
Inter vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 62% chance of winning, Bologna a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Inter and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Bologna?
Record (2 meetings): Inter 1W | Draws 0 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Inter and Bologna in?
Inter (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Bologna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Inter's attack rating (1.28) and Bologna's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.34
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Inter xG
Total xG
2.93
0.92
Bologna xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
13%
7.45
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
2%
48.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Inter and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Inter and 0.92 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Bologna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Inter have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 33W 9D 9L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 16W 14D 21L from 51 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bologna.
Venue Form
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.40 PPG from 25 outings (19W 3D 3L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 5W 7D 13L from 25 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Inter are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Bologna in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 33W 9D 9L in their last 51 games (2.12 PPG), while Bologna have gone 16W 14D 21L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Bologna away?
Inter's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.40 PPG; Bologna away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Inter or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bologna in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Inter won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Inter
3
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 4, Bologna have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Bologna 3-3 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Bologna?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 48%, Bologna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Inter and 60% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Bologna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Inter's recent matches and 56% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Inter's matches and 60% of Bologna's.
Do Inter and Bologna tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Bologna in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Inter run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Bologna 6-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 2.01 xG and Bologna 0.92 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Inter beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.28 / defence 0.75 against Bologna attack 1.07 / defence 1.16, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 62% | Draw 23% | Bologna 15%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 65%, Bologna 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Inter (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.44 average — above their attacking norm. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.