Sassuolo 1-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 36%, yet in-form AS Roma provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sassuolo vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 14 as Sassuolo welcome AS Roma to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sassuolo stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 4W 2D 4L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AS Roma — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AS Roma are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sassuolo, 1 for AS Roma and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
AS Roma trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 69% versus AS Roma 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 74% | AS Roma 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.37 xG and AS Roma 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.145 / defence 1.012 | AS Roma attack 1.167 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.149. Data: 51 Sassuolo games / 51 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 36% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 36%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | AS Roma 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 60% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 36% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Sassuolo 1.37 / AS Roma 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.145 / def 1.012 | AS Roma attack 1.167 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.36
AS Roma xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs AS Roma kick off?
Sassuolo vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Sassuolo 1 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Sassuolo vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs AS Roma part of?
Sassuolo vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 36% chance of winning, AS Roma a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sassuolo and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and AS Roma?
Record (2 meetings): Sassuolo 0W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Sassuolo and AS Roma in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sassuolo's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.58
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.73
1.36
AS Roma xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
9%
10.70
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.36 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sassuolo come into this having played 51 games, going 17W 14D 20L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.73 PPG from 51 outings (26W 10D 15L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sassuolo's home form reads 9W 7D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.60 points per game from 25 outings (12W 4D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Sassuolo are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.47 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: AS Roma in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 17W 14D 20L in their last 51 games (1.27 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 26W 10D 15L in their last 51 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.36 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, AS Roma in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sassuolo and AS Roma runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Sassuolo's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sassuolo
2
Draws
5
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 1, AS Roma have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 68%, AS Roma 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Sassuolo and 56% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Sassuolo's games and 60% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Sassuolo's matches and 56% of AS Roma's.
Do Sassuolo and AS Roma tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo and AS Roma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 14, as Sassuolo and AS Roma drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.37 xG and AS Roma 1.36 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.15 / defence 1.01 against AS Roma attack 1.17 / defence 0.89, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 36% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 36%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 74%, AS Roma 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.