Fiorentina 2-0 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 36 as Fiorentina welcome AS Roma to Stadio Artemio Franchi. Kick-off is set for Monday 9 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Fiorentina's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Fiorentina, 1 for AS Roma and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 1–3 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
AS Roma in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 54% versus AS Roma 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 63% | AS Roma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.26 xG and AS Roma 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.985 / defence 1.096 | AS Roma attack 0.916 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.333. Data: 35 Fiorentina games / 35 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 34% | Draw 29% | AS Roma 38%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | AS Roma 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 20% | AS Roma 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Monday 9 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 34% | Draw 29% | AS Roma 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Fiorentina 1.26 / AS Roma 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.985 / def 1.096 | AS Roma attack 0.916 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.34
AS Roma xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs AS Roma kick off?
Fiorentina vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 9 May 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Fiorentina 2 - 0 AS Roma.
Where is Fiorentina vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs AS Roma part of?
Fiorentina vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 34% chance of winning, AS Roma a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fiorentina and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
Record (1 meetings): Fiorentina 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and AS Roma in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fiorentina's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
34%
2.95
29%
3.49
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.60
1.34
AS Roma xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.34 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 17W 5D 13L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 17W 8D 10L from 35 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.60 PPG, AS Roma on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 2.06 PPG from 17 outings (11W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 7W 3D 7L from 17 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.57 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 17W 5D 13L in their last 35 games (1.60 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 17W 8D 10L in their last 35 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or AS Roma away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.06 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, AS Roma in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 4 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Fiorentina won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
2
Draws
5
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, AS Roma have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 41%, AS Roma 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Fiorentina and 59% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 65% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Fiorentina's matches and 59% of AS Roma's.
Do Fiorentina and AS Roma tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over AS Roma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat AS Roma 2-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.26 xG and AS Roma 1.34 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AS Roma landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.98 / defence 1.10 against AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 34% | Draw 29% | AS Roma 38%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 63%, AS Roma 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Roma's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.60 PPG, AS Roma 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.