AS Roma 3-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cremonese travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, AS Roma stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, AS Roma have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — AS Roma are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Cremonese have recorded 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cremonese away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. AS Roma's 30% BTTS rate and Cremonese's 30% (from AS Roma's last 10 home games and Cremonese's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, AS Roma have won 2, Cremonese 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended AS Roma 3–1 Cremonese — a AS Roma win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Cremonese in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 40% versus Cremonese 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 33% | Cremonese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.62 xG and Cremonese 0.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.125 / defence 0.632 | Cremonese attack 0.626 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.219. Cremonese's attack rating of 0.626 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.48. AS Roma have a tight defence (rating 0.632), which is pulling Cremonese's projected output down. Data: built from AS Roma's last 63 games and Cremonese's last 25.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 65% | Draw 24% | Cremonese 11%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.53 | Draw 4.14 | Cremonese 9.49. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (65%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 31% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Cremonese's lower xG of 0.48 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AS Roma's last 10 home games and Cremonese's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Roma 30% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 65% | Draw 24% | Cremonese 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 31% (No 69%) | xG AS Roma 1.62 / Cremonese 0.48 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.125 / def 0.632 | Cremonese attack 0.626 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.48
Cremonese xG
31%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Cremonese FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Cremonese kick off?
AS Roma vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Cremonese?
AS Roma 3 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is AS Roma vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Cremonese part of?
AS Roma vs Cremonese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 26) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 65% chance of winning, Cremonese a 11% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both AS Roma and Cremonese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (69%).
Will AS Roma vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Roma's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 63 games and Cremonese's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (16.0%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
65%
1.53
24%
4.14
11%
9.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.10
0.48
Cremonese xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
9.49
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.24
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
62%
1.62
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
40%
2.48
2%
47.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.8 | 9.6 | 2.3 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.0 | 7.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Cremonese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.48 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 63 games, going 35W 11D 17L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.37 PPG from 63 outings (21W 23D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Cremonese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 21W 3D 7L across their last 31 home games, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.32 points per game from their last 31 away games (11W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.35 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
AS Roma (Home) vs Cremonese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ AS Roma vs Cremonese Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Cremonese in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 35W 11D 17L in their last 63 games (1.84 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 21W 23D 19L in their last 63 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Cremonese away?
AS Roma's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.13 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.32 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Cremonese in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Feb 2026, when AS Roma won AS Roma 3-0 Cremonese.
AS Roma's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
AS Roma
0
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Cremonese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cremonese?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 3, Cremonese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Cremonese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: AS Roma 3-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Cremonese?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 39%, Cremonese 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (AS Roma) and 55% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Cremonese in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Cremonese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Cremonese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of AS Roma's recent matches and 52% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Cremonese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of AS Roma's recent games and 55% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Cremonese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of AS Roma's recent matches and 64% of Cremonese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Cremonese 3-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.62 xG and Cremonese 0.48 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.12 / defence 0.63 against Cremonese attack 0.63 / defence 1.18, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 65% | Draw 24% | Cremonese 11%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 33%, Cremonese 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cremonese's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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