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Poisson model rates Udinese at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Udinese make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Monday 23 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Udinese (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Bologna against 1.10 for Udinese. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bologna lead 3W to 1W over the last 9 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 3–0 with Bologna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Bologna — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Udinese — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 56% versus Udinese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 52% | Udinese 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.18 xG and Udinese 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.761 / defence 1.127 | Udinese attack 1.018 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.206. Bologna's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Bologna games / 63 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bologna 32% | Draw 26% | Udinese 42%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Udinese 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 30% | Udinese 70%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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