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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Juventus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Juventus travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Juventus — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Juventus away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AS Roma 2.00 PPG, Juventus 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

Juventus have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 9 encounters against AS Roma's 1 victories.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Juventus winning.

It is worth noting that Juventus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

AS Roma in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

Juventus in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 39% versus Juventus 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AS Roma 34% | Juventus 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.42 xG and Juventus 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.217 / defence 0.616 | Juventus attack 1.198 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.183. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.616 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 AS Roma games / 64 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AS Roma 50% | Draw 27% | Juventus 23%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Juventus 4.35. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Juventus 50% BTTS from recent games.

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