AS Roma 1-0 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Atalanta meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Olimpico — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico.
Atalanta's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for AS Roma, 0 for Atalanta and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 4–1 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Atalanta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 50% versus Atalanta 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 54% | Atalanta 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 0.93 xG and Atalanta 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.896 / defence 1.063 | Atalanta attack 1.042 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.374. Data: 27 AS Roma games / 26 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 20% | Draw 32% | Atalanta 48%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | Atalanta 2.08. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 40% | Atalanta 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 20% | Draw 32% | Atalanta 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG AS Roma 0.93 / Atalanta 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.896 / def 1.063 | Atalanta attack 1.042 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Atalanta xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Atalanta kick off?
AS Roma vs Atalanta kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Atalanta.
Where is AS Roma vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Atalanta part of?
AS Roma vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 20% chance of winning, Atalanta a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AS Roma and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Atalanta?
Record (1 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 0 | Atalanta 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Atalanta in?
AS Roma (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Atalanta (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (0.90) and Atalanta's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.04x) against AS Roma's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
20%
4.98
32%
3.14
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.45
1.52
Atalanta xG
4.98
20%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
4%
22.79
19%
5.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 13.1 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.52 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma's recent record stands at 12W 5D 9L from 26 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 5L across 26 games — 1.81 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for AS Roma against 1.81 for Atalanta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 6W 4D 3L from 13 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atalanta's away record stands at 9W 3D 1L across 13 trips, a 2.31 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.81 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.92 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta in 65%.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Atalanta in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 12W 5D 9L in their last 26 games (1.58 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 13W 8D 5L in their last 26 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.69 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.31 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Atalanta in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 1-4 on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Roma
2
Draws
6
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 2, Atalanta have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 38%, Atalanta 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (AS Roma) and 62% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Atalanta in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AS Roma's recent matches and 62% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of AS Roma's recent games and 62% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Atalanta tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AS Roma defy the odds to beat Atalanta 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Atalanta 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 0.93 xG and Atalanta 1.52 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atalanta landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.90 / defence 1.06 against Atalanta attack 1.04 / defence 0.90, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 20% | Draw 32% | Atalanta 48%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a AS Roma win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 54%, Atalanta 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atalanta's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.58 PPG, Atalanta 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.