Spezia 0-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Picco plays host to Spezia versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 27 February 2022 at 17:05 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Spezia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Picco this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Spezia against 1.60 for AS Roma. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Spezia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, AS Roma in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Spezia 0W, AS Roma 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 62% versus AS Roma 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 62% | AS Roma 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.25 xG and AS Roma 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.790 / defence 1.159 | AS Roma attack 1.100 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.394. Spezia's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AS Roma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.401 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Spezia games / 26 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 24% | Draw 29% | AS Roma 47%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | AS Roma 2.13. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 70% | AS Roma 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 17:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 24% | Draw 29% | AS Roma 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Spezia 1.25 / AS Roma 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.790 / def 1.159 | AS Roma attack 1.100 / def 1.401 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.78
AS Roma xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs AS Roma kick off?
Spezia vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:05 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs AS Roma?
Spezia 0 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Spezia vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs AS Roma part of?
Spezia vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 24% chance of winning, AS Roma a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Spezia and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and AS Roma?
Record (1 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Spezia and AS Roma in?
Spezia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.79) and AS Roma's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.10x) against Spezia's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
24%
4.12
29%
3.49
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Spezia xG
Total xG
3.03
1.78
AS Roma xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
4%
24.33
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Spezia and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Spezia and 1.78 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Spezia's recent record stands at 7W 5D 14L from 26 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 9L across 26 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spezia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 3W 3D 6L from 12 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 5W 1D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.69 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spezia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 7W 5D 14L in their last 26 games (1.00 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 12W 5D 9L in their last 26 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.00 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Spezia or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, AS Roma in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Spezia
0
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and AS Roma?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 0, AS Roma have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 4 June 2023, when AS Roma 2-1 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Spezia, 67% for AS Roma — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Spezia and 75% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Spezia's games and 67% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Spezia's matches and 75% of AS Roma's.
Do Spezia and AS Roma tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Spezia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Spezia 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.25 xG and AS Roma 1.78 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Spezia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.79 / defence 1.16 against AS Roma attack 1.10 / defence 1.40, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 24% | Draw 29% | AS Roma 47%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 62%, AS Roma 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Roma's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.