Cagliari 0-3 Lazio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lazio at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cagliari host Lazio at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cagliari — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cagliari 1.50 PPG, Lazio 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cagliari, 0 for Lazio and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cagliari trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lazio trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cagliari 67% and Lazio 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cagliari 56% | Lazio 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.12 xG and Lazio 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.841 / defence 1.299 | Lazio attack 0.998 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.362. Data: 27 Cagliari games / 27 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 22% | Draw 28% | Lazio 50%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Lazio 2.00. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 90% | Lazio 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 22% | Draw 28% | Lazio 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Cagliari 1.12 / Lazio 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.841 / def 1.299 | Lazio attack 0.998 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Lazio (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Lazio xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Lazio kick off?
Cagliari vs Lazio kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Lazio?
Cagliari 0 - 3 Lazio.
Where is Cagliari vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Lazio part of?
Cagliari vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 22% chance of winning, Lazio a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cagliari and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Lazio?
Record (1 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | Lazio 0W.
What form are Cagliari and Lazio in?
Cagliari (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Lazio (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.84x the league average against Lazio's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
22%
4.61
28%
3.53
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.89
1.77
Lazio xG
4.61
22%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
4%
26.97
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.77 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari come into this having played 27 games, going 5W 10D 12L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lazio sit at 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (12W 7D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cagliari's home form reads 2W 6D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Lazio have taken 1.15 points per game from 13 outings (4W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lazio's season.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 2.00 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Lazio in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Lazio in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 5W 10D 12L in their last 27 games (0.93 PPG), while Lazio have gone 12W 7D 8L in their last 27 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 0.92 PPG; Lazio away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Lazio runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2022, when Lazio won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cagliari
2
Draws
6
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Lazio?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Lazio have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Cagliari 0-0 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cagliari at 85%, Lazio at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Cagliari and 77% for Lazio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Lazio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Cagliari's games and 62% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Cagliari's matches and 77% of Lazio's.
Do Cagliari and Lazio tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lazio in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lazio run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Cagliari 0-3 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.12 xG and Lazio 1.77 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lazio outscored their 1.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.84 / defence 1.30 against Lazio attack 1.00 / defence 1.15, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 22% | Draw 28% | Lazio 50%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 56%, Lazio 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lazio's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.