Fiorentina 1-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hellas Verona make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Fiorentina (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's home record at Stadio Artemio Franchi: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Hellas Verona have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Hellas Verona have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Fiorentina, 1.70 for Hellas Verona — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fiorentina lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fiorentina half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fiorentina 58% and Hellas Verona 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fiorentina 73% | Hellas Verona 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 2.42 xG and Hellas Verona 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.409 / defence 1.053 | Hellas Verona attack 1.038 / defence 1.504. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.364. Fiorentina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.409 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.504 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Fiorentina games / 27 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 57% | Draw 22% | Hellas Verona 21%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Hellas Verona 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.92 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 40% | Hellas Verona 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 57% | Draw 22% | Hellas Verona 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 72% | xG Fiorentina 2.42 / Hellas Verona 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.409 / def 1.053 | Hellas Verona attack 1.038 / def 1.504 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Hellas Verona xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Fiorentina 1 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona part of?
Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 57% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Fiorentina and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Hellas Verona?
Record (1 meetings): Fiorentina 0W | Draws 1 | Hellas Verona 0W.
What form are Fiorentina and Hellas Verona in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.41x the league average against Hellas Verona's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (1.04x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
57%
1.77
22%
4.49
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.92
1.49
Hellas Verona xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.60
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
9%
11.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
2%
53.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.49 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fiorentina's recent record stands at 13W 3D 10L from 26 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 8L across 26 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.54 for Hellas Verona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fiorentina have managed 8W 1D 3L from 12 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hellas Verona's away record stands at 3W 5D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.92 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona in 77%.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 13W 3D 10L in their last 26 games (1.62 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 11W 7D 8L in their last 26 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Hellas Verona away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.08 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 0-3 on 27 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
2
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Hellas Verona?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Fiorentina, 83% for Hellas Verona — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 92% for Fiorentina and 67% for Hellas Verona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Fiorentina's games and 83% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 92% of Fiorentina's matches and 67% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Fiorentina and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 28, as Fiorentina and Hellas Verona drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 2.42 xG and Hellas Verona 1.49 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.41 / defence 1.05 against Hellas Verona attack 1.04 / defence 1.50, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 57% | Draw 22% | Hellas Verona 21%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 73%, Hellas Verona 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.62 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.