Udinese 1-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 29 as Udinese welcome AS Roma to Dacia Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dacia Arena, Udinese have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AS Roma's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Udinese) versus 1.60 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Udinese register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, AS Roma in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Udinese, 1 for AS Roma and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
AS Roma in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 54% versus AS Roma 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 46% | AS Roma 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.46 xG and AS Roma 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.021 / defence 1.225 | AS Roma attack 1.074 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.343. AS Roma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Udinese games / 28 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 30% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 43%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | AS Roma 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 70% | AS Roma 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 30% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Udinese 1.46 / AS Roma 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.021 / def 1.225 | AS Roma attack 1.074 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.77
AS Roma xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs AS Roma kick off?
Udinese vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs AS Roma?
Udinese 1 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Udinese vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs AS Roma part of?
Udinese vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 30% chance of winning, AS Roma a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Udinese and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and AS Roma?
Record (1 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Udinese and AS Roma in?
Udinese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. AS Roma (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Udinese's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
30%
3.33
27%
3.73
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Udinese xG
Total xG
3.22
1.77
AS Roma xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
5%
19.47
10%
9.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Udinese and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Udinese and 1.77 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Udinese come into this having played 26 games, going 6W 11D 9L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (12W 5D 9L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Udinese's home form reads 4W 5D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.33 points per game from 12 outings (5W 1D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.50 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 6W 11D 9L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 12W 5D 9L in their last 26 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or AS Roma away?
Udinese's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.42 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Udinese or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, AS Roma in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Sep 2022, when Udinese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
1
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, AS Roma have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Udinese 1-0 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 58%, AS Roma 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Udinese) and 67% (AS Roma).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Udinese's games and 67% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Udinese's recent games and 67% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and AS Roma tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and AS Roma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 29, as Udinese and AS Roma drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.46 xG and AS Roma 1.77 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.02 / defence 1.23 against AS Roma attack 1.07 / defence 1.29, drawn from 26/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 30% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 43%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 46%, AS Roma 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.