Atalanta 0-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atalanta and Genoa meet at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atalanta have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Gewiss Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 8D 2L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Genoa away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Atalanta have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Genoa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Atalanta, 0 for Genoa and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Atalanta half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 63% versus Genoa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 63% | Genoa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.94 xG and Genoa 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.212 / defence 1.101 | Genoa attack 0.609 / defence 1.445. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.343. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.445 — this is suppressing Atalanta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Atalanta games / 28 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 60% | Draw 25% | Genoa 15%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Genoa 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 70% | Genoa 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 60% | Draw 25% | Genoa 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Atalanta 1.94 / Genoa 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.212 / def 1.101 | Genoa attack 0.609 / def 1.445 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Genoa xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Genoa kick off?
Atalanta vs Genoa kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Genoa?
Atalanta 0 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Atalanta vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Genoa part of?
Atalanta vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 60% chance of winning, Genoa a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atalanta and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Genoa?
Record (1 meetings): Atalanta 0W | Draws 1 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Genoa in?
Atalanta (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Genoa (all comps): 0W-8D-2L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.61x) against Atalanta's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
60%
1.67
25%
3.97
15%
6.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.84
0.90
Genoa xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
6.71
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
14%
6.98
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
2%
46.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.90 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 13W 8D 6L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa's form line: 1W 15D 11L from 27 games, 0.67 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Atalanta are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.31 PPG from 13 outings (4W 5D 4L). That actually lags their 1.74 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Genoa have gone 1W 7D 5L from 13 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atalanta are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.81 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Genoa in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 13W 8D 6L in their last 27 games (1.74 PPG), while Genoa have gone 1W 15D 11L in their last 27 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Genoa away?
Atalanta's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.31 PPG; Genoa away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 5-1 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Atalanta
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 5, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Atalanta 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Genoa?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Atalanta, 62% for Genoa — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Atalanta) and 46% (Genoa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Genoa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Atalanta's games and 62% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Atalanta's matches and 46% of Genoa's.
Do Atalanta and Genoa tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Genoa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atalanta's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Atalanta and Genoa drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.94 xG and Genoa 0.90 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atalanta fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.21 / defence 1.10 against Genoa attack 0.61 / defence 1.45, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 60% | Draw 25% | Genoa 15%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 63%, Genoa 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Genoa's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.