Napoli 0-1 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Milan at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Napoli vs AC Milan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 28 as Napoli welcome AC Milan to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Napoli — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, AC Milan have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AC Milan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Milan's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Napoli) versus 1.80 (AC Milan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Napoli, 0 for AC Milan and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Napoli winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Napoli in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
AC Milan in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 44% versus AC Milan 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 44% | AC Milan 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.48 xG and AC Milan 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.100 / defence 0.935 | AC Milan attack 1.241 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.358. AC Milan have an above-average attack strength of 1.241 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Napoli games / 27 AC Milan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 33% | Draw 29% | AC Milan 37%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | AC Milan 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AC Milan are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Milan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Napoli 40% | AC Milan 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 33% | Draw 29% | AC Milan 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 64% | xG Napoli 1.48 / AC Milan 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.100 / def 0.935 | AC Milan attack 1.241 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
1.58
AC Milan xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs AC Milan kick off?
Napoli vs AC Milan kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs AC Milan?
Napoli 0 - 1 AC Milan.
Where is Napoli vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs AC Milan part of?
Napoli vs AC Milan is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 33% chance of winning, AC Milan a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Napoli and AC Milan will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and AC Milan?
Record (1 meetings): Napoli 1W | Draws 0 | AC Milan 0W.
What form are Napoli and AC Milan in?
Napoli (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. AC Milan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Napoli's attack rating (1.10) and AC Milan's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AC Milan's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
33%
3.01
29%
3.40
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Napoli xG
Total xG
3.06
1.58
AC Milan xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
7%
14.57
9%
11.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Napoli and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Napoli and 1.58 for AC Milan, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs AC Milan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Napoli have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 17W 6D 4L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Milan's form line: 17W 6D 4L from 27 games, 2.11 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for AC Milan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Napoli on 2.11 PPG, AC Milan on 2.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Napoli have posted 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L).
On the road, AC Milan have gone 9W 3D 1L from 13 away games — 2.31 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Napoli are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.96 scored and 1.07 conceded. AC Milan's attacking output running into Napoli's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: AC Milan in 63%.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
AC Milan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and AC Milan in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 17W 6D 4L in their last 27 games (2.11 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 17W 6D 4L in their last 27 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or AC Milan away?
AC Milan's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.00 PPG; AC Milan away: 2.31 PPG.
Have Napoli or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, AC Milan in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Napoli and AC Milan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when AC Milan won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Napoli's record when hosting AC Milan specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Napoli
1
Draws
4
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and AC Milan?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 5, AC Milan have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and AC Milan last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Napoli 1-0 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and AC Milan?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 38%, AC Milan 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Napoli) and 77% (AC Milan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play AC Milan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Napoli's games and 77% of AC Milan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Napoli vs AC Milan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Napoli's matches and 77% of AC Milan's.
Do Napoli and AC Milan tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, AC Milan in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AC Milan edge out Napoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan beat Napoli 0-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.48 xG and AC Milan 1.58 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Napoli fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against AC Milan attack 1.24 / defence 1.20, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 33% | Draw 29% | AC Milan 37%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 44%, AC Milan 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
AC Milan's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Napoli 2.11 PPG, AC Milan 2.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Milan win broke the near-deadlock. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. AC Milan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.