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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Kifisia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Kifisia travel to Levadia Stadium to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Levadiakos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Levadiakos at Levadia Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Kifisia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Kifisia haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Kifisia have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levadiakos 1.30 PPG, Kifisia 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for Kifisia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Kifisia winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Levadiakos trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Kifisia trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 56% versus Kifisia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 66% | Kifisia 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.63 xG and Kifisia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.096 / defence 1.023 | Kifisia attack 0.963 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 Levadiakos games / 26 Kifisia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 49% | Draw 28% | Kifisia 23%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Kifisia 4.35. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 70% | Kifisia 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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