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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Volos NFC.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Volos NFC travel to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Olympiakos Piraeus haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Volos NFC haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Volos NFC have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Olympiakos Piraeus have dominated this rivalry, winning 8 of 10 past contests while Volos NFC have managed just 0 wins.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.

Volos NFC trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 34% versus Volos NFC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 34% | Volos NFC 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.40 xG and Volos NFC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.975 / defence 0.870 | Volos NFC attack 0.936 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 26 Volos NFC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Draw 31% | Volos NFC 21%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Volos NFC 4.76. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 20% | Volos NFC 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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