Panetolikos vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panetolikos Stadium plays host to Panetolikos versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's home record at Panetolikos Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Levadiakos (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Panetolikos 2W, Levadiakos 3W, 5D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 2–0 with Panetolikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 44% versus Levadiakos 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 46% | Levadiakos 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.20 xG and Levadiakos 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.744 / defence 1.127 | Levadiakos attack 0.637 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. Panetolikos's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Panetolikos games / 35 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 46% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 21%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.17 | Draw 2.94 | Levadiakos 4.76. Panetolikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 60% | Levadiakos 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 46% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Panetolikos 1.20 / Levadiakos 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.744 / def 1.127 | Levadiakos attack 0.637 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Levadiakos xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Panetolikos Stadium.
Where is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos part of?
Panetolikos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 46% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Panetolikos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
Record (10 meetings): Panetolikos 2W | Draws 5 | Levadiakos 3W.
What form are Panetolikos and Levadiakos in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.64x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
46%
2.20
34%
2.96
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
1.92
0.72
Levadiakos xG
2.20
46%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
6%
16.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 10.6 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.7 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.72 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panetolikos's recent record stands at 11W 8D 22L from 41 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 15L across 41 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Levadiakos by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panetolikos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Panetolikos have managed 6W 3D 11L from 20 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 5W 6D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panetolikos are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.61 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 11W 8D 22L in their last 41 games (1.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Levadiakos away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.05 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 6-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Panetolikos
5
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 2, Levadiakos have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Levadiakos 0-2 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 50%, Levadiakos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Panetolikos) and 55% (Levadiakos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 40% of games; Levadiakos in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 40% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Panetolikos's matches and 55% of Levadiakos's.
Do Panetolikos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.