🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Atromitos at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Iraklis 1908 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Iraklis 1908 travel to Peristeri Stadium to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Atromitos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Atromitos have posted 4W 4D 2L at Peristeri Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.50 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.960 / defence 1.030 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 Atromitos games / 0 Iraklis 1908 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Atromitos 48% | Draw 30% | Iraklis 1908 22%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Iraklis 1908 4.55. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights