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Poisson model rates OFI at 42%, yet in-form Aris Thessalonikis provide a compelling counter-argument — this OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as OFI welcome Aris Thessalonikis to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. OFI haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
OFI at Pankritio Stadium this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pankritio Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — OFI are significantly better at Pankritio Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Aris Thessalonikis's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of OFI's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for OFI, 4 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 47% versus Aris Thessalonikis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 69% | Aris Thessalonikis 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.36 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.036 / defence 1.038 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.934 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 OFI games / 26 Aris Thessalonikis games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: OFI 42% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 27%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aris Thessalonikis (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: OFI 20% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): OFI 5W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 4W • Goals trend: 2.80 goals/game | Total H2H goals: OFI 15 – 13 Aris Thessalonikis • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 40% | Win rates: OFI 50% / Draw 10% / Aris Thessalonikis 40% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 42% / draw 31% / away 27% • Goals: H2H average 2.80/game (40% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.40 (43% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 50% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • OFI (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W • Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W • OFI home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | CS 5 • Aris Thessalonikis away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 4 • Form edge: Aris Thessalonikis lead by 0.70 PPG (1.80 vs 1.10) • xG vs form (OFI): Poisson projects 1.36 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.90 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Aris Thessalonikis): Poisson xG of 1.04 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.40 (43% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~35% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 50% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Aris Thessalonikis on PPG but Poisson rates OFI higher (42% vs 27% for Aris Thessalonikis) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 42% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG OFI 1.36 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.036 / def 1.038 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.934 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: OFI (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Aris Thessalonikis xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Pankritio Stadium.
Where is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 42% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both OFI and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
• Record (10 meetings): OFI 5W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 4W • Goals trend: 2.80 goals/game | Total H2H goals: OFI 15 – 13 Aris Thessalonikis • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 40% | Win rates: OFI 50% / Draw 10% / Aris Thessalonikis 40% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 42% / draw 31% / away 27% • Goals: H2H average 2.80/game (40% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.40 (43% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 50% — no strong aligned signal
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • OFI (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W • Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W • OFI home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | CS 5 • Aris Thessalonikis away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 4 • Form edge: Aris Thessalonikis lead by 0.70 PPG (1.80 vs 1.10) • xG vs form (OFI): Poisson projects 1.36 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.90 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Aris Thessalonikis): Poisson xG of 1.04 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.40 (43% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~35% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 50% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Aris Thessalonikis on PPG but Poisson rates OFI higher (42% vs 27% for Aris Thessalonikis) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture