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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos encounter.

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Full Analysis

Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 20 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 3W 6D 1L at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Levadiakos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Levadiakos away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Aris Thessalonikis's favour (1.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 1 for Levadiakos and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 50% versus Levadiakos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 34% | Levadiakos 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.31 xG and Levadiakos 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.880 / defence 0.968 | Levadiakos attack 1.023 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 Aris Thessalonikis games / 26 Levadiakos games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 32% | Levadiakos 28%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Levadiakos 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Levadiakos 30% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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