Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aris Thessalonikis face Levadiakos.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 20 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 4W 5D 1L at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this season.
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Aris Thessalonikis's favour (2.30 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 1 for Levadiakos and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 53% versus Levadiakos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 38% | Levadiakos 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.84 xG and Levadiakos 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.981 / defence 0.986 | Levadiakos attack 0.913 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 0.997. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Aris Thessalonikis games / 28 Levadiakos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 58% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 16%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Levadiakos 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Aris Thessalonikis (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Levadiakos 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 58% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.84 / Levadiakos 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.981 / def 0.986 | Levadiakos attack 0.913 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.475 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Levadiakos xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 58% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos?
Record (8 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 3W | Draws 4 | Levadiakos 1W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (0.98) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.91x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
58%
1.73
26%
3.87
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.73
0.90
Levadiakos xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
3%
38.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.90 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 13W 13D 8L from 34 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 12L across 34 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.53 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 6W 9D 2L from 17 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 5W 4D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Levadiakos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.85 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 13W 13D 8L in their last 34 games (1.53 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Levadiakos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.59 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 3-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
4
Draws
1
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos?
From 8 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, Levadiakos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 53%, Levadiakos 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 65% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 35% of games; Levadiakos in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 47% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 65% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.