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Poisson rates PAOK at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs AEK Athens FC encounter.

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Full Analysis

Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

PAOK (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAOK haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

PAOK's home record at Toumba Stadium: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.

AEK Athens FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 5D 0L. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AEK Athens FC haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

AEK Athens FC's away record: 4W 6D 0L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. AEK Athens FC are 0.60 PPG clear of PAOK in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 4W to 2W over the last 10 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 44% versus AEK Athens FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 56% | AEK Athens FC 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.45 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.134 / defence 0.864 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.137 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 PAOK games / 26 AEK Athens FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: PAOK 44% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 25%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | AEK Athens FC 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

PAOK dominate the H2H record, yet AEK Athens FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AEK Athens FC (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: PAOK 40% | AEK Athens FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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