Iraklis 1908 vs Olympiakos Piraeus – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Iraklis 1908 vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Kaftanzoglio Stadium to face Iraklis 1908 in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Iraklis 1908 (all games): 0W 1D 1L across 2 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Iraklis 1908 have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Iraklis 1908 0.94 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.064 / defence 0.739. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.739 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 2 Iraklis 1908 games / 28 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 26% | Draw 33% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40%. Fair-value odds: Iraklis 1908 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Iraklis 1908 vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Kaftanzoglio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 26% | Draw 33% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Iraklis 1908 0.94 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.064 / def 0.739 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Iraklis 1908 xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Iraklis 1908 vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Iraklis 1908 vs Olympiakos Piraeus is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
Where is Iraklis 1908 vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
What competition is Iraklis 1908 vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Iraklis 1908 vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Iraklis 1908 vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Iraklis 1908 a 26% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Iraklis 1908 vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Iraklis 1908 and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Iraklis 1908 vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Iraklis 1908 and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Iraklis 1908 and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Iraklis 1908's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.06x) against Iraklis 1908's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
The sample (2/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
26%
3.82
33%
3.00
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Iraklis 1908 xG
Total xG
2.16
1.22
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 14.1 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Iraklis 1908 vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Iraklis 1908 and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Iraklis 1908 and 1.22 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Iraklis 1908 vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Iraklis 1908 come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D. It's still early in the season for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.50 PPG clear of Iraklis 1908 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Iraklis 1908 are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Olympiakos Piraeus in 0%.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Iraklis 1908
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Iraklis 1908 and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Iraklis 1908 or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Iraklis 1908 have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Iraklis 1908 home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Iraklis 1908 play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Iraklis 1908's recent matches and 0% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Iraklis 1908 vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Iraklis 1908's recent games and 0% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Iraklis 1908 and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Iraklis 1908 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.