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Poisson model rates OFI at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Iraklis 1908 vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees OFI travel to Kaftanzoglio Stadium to take on Iraklis 1908. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. OFI haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, OFI have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Iraklis 1908 1.26 xG and OFI 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | OFI attack 1.033 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Iraklis 1908 games / 26 OFI games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 34% | Draw 31% | OFI 35%. Fair-value odds: Iraklis 1908 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | OFI 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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