Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates PAOK at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK encounter.

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Full Analysis

Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus PAOK in Super League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Aris Thessalonikis's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 6D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

PAOK (all games): 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 — 2.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

PAOK away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

PAOK arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) — Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PAOK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 3 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2025, ended Aris Thessalonikis 1–3 PAOK — a PAOK win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).

PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 48% versus PAOK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 34% | PAOK 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Aris Thessalonikis surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while PAOK have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.14 xG and PAOK 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.896 / defence 0.874 | PAOK attack 1.383 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.174. PAOK have an above-average attack rating of 1.383, which lifts their away xG to 1.42. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 45 games and PAOK's last 44.

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Draw 26% | PAOK 43%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 3.29 | Draw 3.80 | PAOK 2.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though recent form (Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 60% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 60% (last 10 away games).

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