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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates OFI at 43%, yet in-form Levadiakos provide a compelling counter-argument — this OFI vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 20 as OFI welcome Levadiakos to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.

OFI's home record at Pankritio Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Levadiakos — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Levadiakos's 2.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of OFI's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, OFI have won 1, Levadiakos 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–4 with Levadiakos winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

OFI in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Levadiakos in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 48% versus Levadiakos 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 64% | Levadiakos 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.54 xG and Levadiakos 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.115 / defence 0.872 | Levadiakos attack 1.278 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.165. Levadiakos have an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 OFI games / 45 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: OFI 43% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 32%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Levadiakos 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Levadiakos (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: OFI 40% | Levadiakos 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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