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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Volos NFC face Aris Thessalonikis.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Aris Thessalonikis travel to Panthessaliko Stadium to take on Volos NFC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Volos NFC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 4W 1D 5L at Panthessaliko Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Volos NFC are significantly better at Panthessaliko Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Aris Thessalonikis are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Aris Thessalonikis have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Volos NFC.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.

It is worth noting that Aris Thessalonikis have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Volos NFC in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 42% versus Aris Thessalonikis 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 48% | Aris Thessalonikis 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.83 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.713 / defence 1.191 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.791 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.139. Volos NFC's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Volos NFC games / 46 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Volos NFC 28% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 41%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 40% BTTS from recent games.

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