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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Larisa take on Panetolikos.

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Full Analysis

AEL FC Arena plays host to Larisa versus Panetolikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Larisa have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Larisa have posted 2W 4D 4L at AEL FC Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Panetolikos's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form favours the hosts. Larisa's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Panetolikos's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Larisa 0W, Panetolikos 1W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Panetolikos winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Larisa half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 47% versus Panetolikos 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Larisa 37% | Panetolikos 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 0.87 xG and Panetolikos 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.701 / defence 1.100 | Panetolikos attack 0.697 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.119. Larisa's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Larisa games / 45 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Larisa 34% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 33%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Panetolikos 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Panetolikos's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Larisa 50% | Panetolikos 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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