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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos encounter.

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Analysis

Panathinaikos make the trip to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Olympiakos Piraeus at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.

Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panathinaikos have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 0.70 PPG lead over Panathinaikos (2.40 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Olympiakos Piraeus, 1 for Panathinaikos and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.

Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 44% versus Panathinaikos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Panathinaikos 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.95 xG and Panathinaikos 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.232 / defence 0.706 | Panathinaikos attack 0.845 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.155. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.706 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 44 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 67% | Draw 21% | Panathinaikos 12%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Panathinaikos 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Panathinaikos 50% BTTS from recent games.

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